Reasonable Doubt from Unconceived Alternatives

Abstract In criminal trials, judges or jurors have to decide whether the facts described in indictment are proven beyond a reasonable doubt. However, these decision-makers cannot always imagine every relevant sequence of events—there may be unconceived alternatives. The possibility alternatives is an overlooked source I argue that should not consider defendant’s guilt if they good reasons believe plausible, scenarios exist. explore this thesis through lens two most influential accounts rational proof—Bayesian and explanation-based approaches. draw on related ideas from philosophy science show why when lead doubt either account.